Recently, I ran across an article in Entrepreneur magazine about being proactive in shaping your brand identity (or reputation) and using public relations to do it. I have written on this blog many times that most crises are survived by the actions taken before the crisis happens. It is the centerpiece of the Resilient5 program.

Now, the article goes on to talk about “futurecasting.” I have also written before about the perils of prediction, noting how even the predictions of the experts usually fall flat.

But inside the article is a perspective and approach which lets us look to the future in a different way: by using scenario planning.

Scenario Planning vs. Crisis Planning

Scenario planning is a little bit different than the PR practice of trying to guess specific types of crises and crafting reactions to them. It’s like a stress test….the scenario is designed to identify strengths and probe for weaknesses, allowing improvements to be made proactively and for the general health of the enterprise, not just to solve one crisis.

As an example, what if someone had done a scenario planning exercise before outsourcing their supply chain to China? The scenario might be: A global pandemic shuts down our Chinese supply chain.

You’d be forced to “face the brutal facts:” What would happen…shortages, lost revenue, lost customers, lost reputation, etc. It would have exposed the hidden liabilities inside the cost-driven decision to move operations overseas and possibly take another path or at least hedge your risk.

The biggest weakness of any scenario planning is the bias toward known threats. A PR approach, however, can mitigate that risk. Keep reading.

Doing scenarios right

These scenarios also have to be done right. Like personas, they can easily (and maybe unconsciously) be crafted to be self-serving, comforting, siloed, or targeted at an enemy department.

Hey, and look at us: storytellers! Our first job is to create a great scenario, a story with strong details, and a compelling narrative that draws people into the spirit of the exercise. (FWIW, I asked ChatGPT to do an example…it’s here).

So here is the thing. What you usually get out of an exercise like that is numbers—impact on EBITDA, balance sheet impact, market share, median days to delivery, average inventory levels, operating cash, etc. As McConaughey says in Wolf of Wall Street, “You're dealing with numbers. All day long, decimal points, high frequencies. Fucking digits. All very acidic above-the-shoulders mustard shit.”

Communicators See Things Differently

As communicators, we are about building trust with external stakeholders and internal stakeholders. We should employ scenario planning for the following data:

• How are our stakeholders impacted by the scenario?

• Which relationships are stressed?

• Which relationships does our response rely on?

  • Can we rely on those relationships?

• Who is impacted negatively? What damage control will we need to do?

• How can we proactively prepare? Which relationships do we need to invest in and how do we need to make that investment? What do people need to know, think, do and believe.

Ready to thrive, no matter what

Your goal is to build agility, not “lock in.” Most importantly, those stronger relationships do more than prepare for a specific crisis. They prepare you for unknown crises and they also lift your sails during good times.